INDIA: A DEFENCE SUPERPOWER...in the making

CAN INDIA BE A DEFENCE SUPERPOWER WITHOUT RAPID EXPANSION OF ITS DEFENCE CAPABILITIES?

• We all know and hear that India will become a Superpower by 2040. Everyone says that India is the next U.S.A. and China is the next Russia. But have we ever thought why U.S.A. is what it is today. We may think of things like democracy, freedom of speech, capitalism, size of economy etc. But single handily one thing which outweighs all others is its muscle power. Its capabilities are so huge that any other country is not even near it. Like its navy is bigger than the next 13 country’s navy combined, its air force is 4 times bigger than its nearest competitor. It was only this country which had the power to single handily press and pass the safeguards agreement for India at IAEA, going against normal conventions. It is perhaps only because of this that the global balance of power is maintained. To prove this we may take examples of Japan and Germany which in spite becoming major economies don’t have corresponding equivalent powers in the world arena.If India wants to avoid such a situation it should really start to think about expanding its defence capabilities. Not to mention it is necessary as India is surrounded by very great neighbours (pun intended).

• In one side is Pakistan with whom India has fought four wars and is engaged in a proxy war for more than two decades. On the other side is china whose intentions are still unclear what it wants to do and with whom we were once engaged in a war.  Then we have Bangladesh for whom we had fought a war and Sri Lanka for whom we had lost one of our prime ministers. Truly speaking what India lacked in the last sixty years has been strategic planning. Perhaps India’s biggest mistake was allowing Pakistan to go nuclear. India could have easily done an airstrike upon Pakistan’s nuclear installations like what Israel did to Iraq in 1981. And today India’s biggest problem is a ‘nuclear’ Pakistan with a no ‘no first use policy’. It is like a piece of meal which is struck in the throat. Neither you can swallow it nor can we throw it out.

• Things have gone and time has changed. Perhaps now time has come to refine our thinking, our aims, and our goals. If India had a nuclear or conventional arsenal of even one third of that of US Pakistan would have never dared of thinking of destabilizing our country with tools like terrorism.  Technically speaking for a developing country like India spending such a huge amount on defence was not feasible but now it possible. May be now time has come that we should change our strategy of deterrence against china and Pakistan only.

• Our defence industry is still in a very nascent state. It needs huge sums of money for development of future technology. We need to ensure thorough private participation in the process. Without their involvement red tape & corruption will always provide hindrance to the development of the defence sector. Again not to mention we need to replicate the American model here too. In India people have a very wrong notion that defence should not be priority now. Let India be a country with a huge economy then defence should be given priority. But this is entirely wrong. Sectors like defence need a huge gestation period for the development of technology. It needs a minimum of 15 years of development to build a nuclear submarine or an advanced fifth generation fighter aircraft. In India case involvement of public sector has ensured it to be double that time. Examples are many. India’s first indigenous fighter the LCA took nearly took 25 years for development. The project was almost stalled after 1998 pokhran tests as U.S.A. had put sanctions on India for many things one of them being the power plant (engine) of the LCA. Now news is coming that the Air force is not very keen on buying this aircraft in huge numbers as it is now considered outdated. For the army DRDO’s Arjun main battle tank was also not a good experience as it was far away from its recommended specifications. DRDO’s INSAS rifle has been the main stay of army for quite a long time. But DRDO has failed to make it good enough for exports. Our very first SSBN or ballistic missile submarine INS Arihant took nearly 30 years for completion with substantial Russian help. Perhaps the only successful project which we had was the IGMDP or Integrated Guided Missile Development Program which led to development of Agni, Prithivi and other missiles. Most of them have been successful projects. As this a project of prima strategic importance separate funding mechanisms was put in place. All this snail pace work is due to establishments like DRDO and HAL (Hindustan aeronautics limited). The very nature of public sector is to be slow. It is clear from the fact that BrahMOS missile development was a huge success because of foreign participation. It was more or less on schedule thanks to pressure from its foreign partner. Nowadays public sector firms outsource small parts of their work to private firms but it is simply not enough. The only possibilities of speeding up things are disinvestments in public sector defence companies or more conservatively forming joint ventures with pvt. Firms.  Development of sophisticated technologies like fighter aircrafts or nuclear submarines should be transferred in private hands.

• For example government should divest a major part of its holdings in companies like DRDO and HAL and form joint ventures. Company’s like Tata, L & T and Mahindra

• Now it comes to the matter of money. How much we should spend on development of new technology and is it feasible. India currently spends 1.5 lakh crore on defence i.e. 3-3.5 % of the GDP. According to economists and analysts it should be around 5 % of the GDP. That’s almost double that of current size and no doubt a large part of it should be spent development of modern technologies. A quick estimate suggests that approx. 50,000 cr per year for the next 15 years is enough for development of fighter aircrafts (in all three categories Light, medium & heavy combat) , wide bodied transport planes, development &  production of at least five aircraft carriers (supercarriers) & five ballistic missile submarines  with ten attack submarines and a host of other small projects. All this projects should be world-class as huge sum would be spent on its development. India could easily recover the costs by exporting fighter aircrafts & other equipments to friendly countries. India should also seriously think about increasing its ballistic missile range. Currently govt. has sanctioned missiles up to range of 5000 km. And there were recent reports that India has capped its ballistic missile program to 5000km in lieu of the civilian nuclear deal. The reports are denied as wrong and they should be. India is a responsible nuclear weapons state and the world could only feel safer if India expands its capabilities.

• If India wants to be superpower it should also start to develop its muscle power simultaneously. Otherwise it would be too late to start up. Examples are many Japan & Germany are 2nd & 4th largest economies in the world respectively but don’t have a rightful place in the power lobby & international arena as their defence capabilities are underdeveloped.  It is said that proper development of defence sector can give a much needed boost of up to 1% to the GDP growth of our economy. If India is able to develop credible systems new horizons could open up in the export side. India could turn into a net exporter from being a net importer. For all this things to happen work has to start quickly otherwise it would be too late to compete with others.